Brent Edges Toward $100 as Iran Reports More Hormuz Tanker Attacks and Eurasia Group Cuts Its Odds of a Deal to 10%
After two days of diplomacy-driven swings, crude is rising again with Gulf shipping below 60 percent of capacity and a Qatar-brokered draft agreement yet to win backing in Washington or Tehran.
Friday, November 6, 2026/2 min read
Oil's week has been a lesson in how quickly a market can change its mind. Brent was around $99.90 a barrel early on Friday, up about 1.7 percent, and West Texas Intermediate about $91.69, according to FinanceFeeds, which still had Brent on course for a weekly loss of around 12 percent. A day earlier it settled at $98.29, up 3.88 percent, with WTI at $90.52, Kitco recorded. Our report on Thursday's rebound described the first leg of the move from the two-month low.
What has changed since is the quality of the hope. Wednesday's slide came on bets that Washington and Tehran were close to a deal. By Friday the market was pricing something closer to a stalemate, with Gulf News noting that Murban, the Abu Dhabi benchmark, was down almost 5 percent at $95.89 while Brent rose, and the Brent-WTI spread stood at $7.22.
Why is the oil price rising again?
Supply risk. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire after using what it called unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran reported three more tanker attacks on Thursday, according to Gulf News and FinanceFeeds. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre has logged at least five vessel incidents in the Gulf since Sunday. FinanceFeeds put flows through the strait at below 60 percent of capacity.
Oil rose through Thursday's equity rout, which FinanceFeeds read as a sign that Brent is pricing supply risk more than demand. Gulf News added that a US inventory report showed crude, gasoline and distillate stocks falling as demand reached a one-year high. Crude peaked at about $118 in late October, the geopolitical high of a war that began on 28 February.
Will the US and Iran reach a deal?
The analysts say it is unlikely in the near term. Eurasia Group has cut its odds of a deal to 10 percent from 20 percent, and its odds of renewed US strikes to 60 percent from 65 percent, Gulf News reported, warning that escalation could push Brent to between $110 and $125. Rapidan Energy's Bob McNally put the chance of fighting resuming at 80 percent. FinanceFeeds said Iran had reportedly sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, which is trying to win both sides' backing for a draft agreement.
What price levels are traders watching?
FinanceFeeds sets out three reference levels, which it describes as markers and not forecasts: $93.50, the low of Wednesday's slide, as the bear case; a base range of $97 to $102; and $103.60, the level before the crash, as the bull case. The October jobs report at 13:30 GMT is the scheduled event, with a weak figure adding growth worries and a strong one keeping a December Fed hike likely. The unscheduled one is the next tanker incident in the Gulf.
Published in The Outspoken Digest
Editorial desk
Outspoken Digest Markets DeskReports for The Outspoken Digest across Business, Crypto.
Newsletter
The Digest, in your inbox
One edition, sent when it is ready. No noise, and your address is never passed on.
Read Next
More Business →
Gold Slips 1% to $4,044 and Silver to $51.51 as Margin Calls Bite and Goldman Cuts Its Year-End Forecast
Nov 6, 2026/2 min read
US October Jobs Report Due at 13:30 UTC: Economists Expect 59,000 Jobs as a Fed Hike Hangs on the Number
Nov 6, 2026/2 min read
Kospi Closes Down 6% After a Circuit Breaker and the Nikkei Falls Into a Bear Market as the AI Rout Reaches Asia
Nov 6, 2026/2 min read
Airbnb Jumps 11% After the Bell While DraftKings Falls 24% and Atlassian Slides 16%
Nov 5, 2026/2 min read